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The number of cases and deaths continues to rise very slowly. But it never became the threat that we thought it might become a couple of years ago.
Do you think that this situation will transform into a real major threat or global pandemic?


whyme said...

You don't eat the birds to catch the avian influenza. It's not transmitted through cooked birds. You handle live birds who have the virus and then you catch the virus. The birds easily migrate and spread the virus to other birds. They breath on each other. Tell me how many countries make it pandemic?
Lets see, it started in south east asia viet nam (confirmed January 2004) and now spread to Europe. Outbreak countries include:the Republic of Korea, Viet Nam, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Indonesia, China, and Malaysia.
In July 2005 it spread to poultry and wild birds in the Russian Federation and adjacent parts of Kazakhstan, Mongolia.
In October 2005 it spread to Turkey, Romania, and Croatia.
In December 2005 it spread to Ukraine.
In February 2006 Iraq, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Iran, Austria, Germany, Egypt, India and France, and Niger.
Human cases have been reported in fifteen countries, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, Viet Nam, 2006 Iraq, Egypt, Djibouti, Azerbaijan, 2007 Pakistan, Myanmar, Lao, Nigeria and United Kingdom.
So, is it pandemic yet?
The scoreboard of infected humans Jan. 2008:
Indonesia 124 confirmed cases / 100 fatal.
Viet Nam 102 confirmed cases / 48 fatal.
Egypt 43 confirmed / 19 fatal.
Pakistan 1 confirmed / he died.
Myanmar 1 confirmed / she recovered.
China 27 confirmed / 17 fatal.
UK 4 confirmed / 2 in Wales and 2 in NorthWest England.
Cambodia 7 confirmed / 7 fatal.
Lao People's Democratic Republic 2 confirmed / 1 fatal.
Nigeria 1 confirmed / 1 fatal her mother died of same symptoms.
Thailand 25 confirmed / 17 fatal.
Iraq 3 confirmed / 2 fatal.
Djibouti 1 confirmed / stable with persistent symptoms.
Azerbaijan 8 confirmed / 5 fatal.
Germany (mammals) 1 stone marten, 3 domestic cats / 3 cats-found dead, stone marten put to death.
Turkey 12 confirmed / 4 fatal.
It already sounds serious since it's proven birds migrate and have already spread the disease.

Stephani said...

the bird flu has been around forever. its' only been recently in the spot light due to the outbreak.

misty said...

yes it can very easily, I work in the dept of public health and we have an emergency plan, we are on call for this at all times and are taking it very seriously.

iwillmoc said...

If big pharma wants it to, it will. And they will be conveniently standing there with the "solution".

Conrad E said...

Sorry previous posters but there is NO proven cure for H5N1 and it is NOT spread easily. Right now, it is only limited to those who have ingested birds infected with it. The virus has not gained the capability to transmit from human to human, only from birds to human. If the virus mutates and gains the ability for human to human transmission a global pandemic would be virtually certain, especially in the third world where research/resources are lacking.

carzgame said...

i don't think so the current virus your talking about has already got a cure i don't think it would be a problem in the uk or us because they have a good record dealing with animal infections
such as mad cow diseases in the uk and i think if it was really serious it would of already been a global pandemic good question and i get the best answer ;)

Jordan said...

I think so. We have no cure and it can spread extremely easily. It's going to be more of a pandemic than HIV/AIDS because it needs more factors to spread.

TKS said...

We are extremely lucky it hasn't yet, so maybe it won't, but I wouldn't write it off completely.

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