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I am looking for what information experts gather to predict so and if they use certain methods.


Swimming Pool Filters said...

Predictions of a pandemic mortality rate (number of deaths from a disease per 100,000 population) and case-fatality rate (the fraction of infected persons who die from a disease), has to be based on the figures from prior pandemics. Case fatality rate (largely a property of the viral virulence) has ranged from 0.1% to over 3% in prior influenza pandemics. The crude motality rate obviously depends upon many other locally important factors.
If you mean mortality estimates, ie, the total number of people predicted to die from a new pandemic- that figure is considerably harder to predict as it depends upon many variables including the case-fatality rate. Many pandemic modelling tools- described in the second reference, use large simulation programs. You can try out a simple one for yourself at the CDC website, called FluAid. The more elaborate ones take massive ammounts of real data and computational effort, the kind that they do at Los Alamos.

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