Swine Flu Info Blog

2 comments:

philbert said...

Maybe you should get into a different career..

May 7, 2009 at 6:55 AM

starligh said...

If you’re thinking about the H5N1 virus…
Maybe something using the high fatality rate – 78% over the last six months – to emphasize the importance of preparation for sheltering in place for the duration of waves of pandemic flu – not just two weeks? It’s a novel virus so we can expect a very high attack rate – some are now saying 60% or higher. With a case fatality rate of 78%, sheltering in place is the only realistic plan for survival. Unfortunately people aren’t hearing that.
Or a study of the vectors and the increasing danger of human transmission as more and more animals groups are added to this list? Obviously birds, but also pigs, dog, cat, stone marten, tiger, leopard, civet, ferrets, Japanese blowfly, mice.
The cytokine storm kills so quickly – makes a good argument for closing schools before cases are in a community. Unfortunately I’ve spoken to school officials and even state officials who think they can wait until 10% of their students are infected before closing – terrible, deadly mistake. They should also keep as many people in their homes as possible to keep attack rate as low as possible.
There are some great comparisons between Philadelphia and St Louis in 1918. St Louis closed schools and other gathering places early and their death rates from pandemic flu were much lower than in Philadelphia where they waited several weeks to make those changes.
There are also some interesting mutations in the H5N1 virus – 4 clades now I think and several subclades. That might make an interesting study. The case fatality rates varies from clade to clade. The reception binding sites have changed somewhat from clade to clade.
Are these the type of things you're thinking of ?

May 7, 2009 at 6:55 AM